Foresee 2023 Foreign Environment

In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s foreign trade still showed a certain degree of resilience in the face of the triple pressure of “demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations”.

Looking forward to 2023, China’s exports are expected to face downside risks under the impact of the trend of falling external demand and high base. Based on the WTO’s forecast of the global trade volume next year, and considering the great uncertainty of geopolitics and the policy rhythm of overseas central banks next year, and assuming that the export price of next year will not change much compared with this year, we estimate that the year-on-year growth of China’s exports in 2023 will fall to the range of – 3% to 4%. Nevertheless, structural highlights may provide some support for China’s future exports

In 2023, the prospects for global economic growth may face challenges. The global economy is expected to slow down significantly, and some economies will fall into recession. As the trend of external demand declines, the growth of global trade volume weakens, and the growth momentum of trade value may also decrease. As far as China is concerned, although the dual pressures of falling external demand and a high base will put downward pressure on future exports, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports may fall into the range of – 3% to 4%, the structural highlights are still expected.
No matter how the international situation changes, China always goes with the world. We all believe that China will, on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win results, work with relevant economic and trade partners to accelerate multilateral and bilateral economic and trade cooperation, deepen international cooperation on the the Belt and Road, and add new impetus to common development. I believe that the future of China’s foreign trade road will be more exciting and better!